McKinsey & Co. is working on something really valuable: a predictive model for overheated asset markets (bubbles) like the one we're recovering from now. Key quote from the article, which first appeared in the Financial Times:
"The answer lies not in the level of debt alone, but in the sustainability of debt."
The right predictive models could be enormously helpful. We probably wouldn't have believed them during the recent real estate run-up, but I'll bet we pay attention going forward. - David
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