Predicting mortgage interest rates is a challenging proposition (if accuracy matters to the forecaster!). The 10-year Treasury Bond is a major key. As this article says, "we're on a knife's edge." But are we, or is that only in the short term? It's difficult to imagine a scenario that would not have rates increasing from their current levels in the coming years. - David
July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell for the first week in a month, pushing 10-year yields up the most since April as concern eased the U.S. will slide back into recession and the government prepared to auction $69 billion of notes and bonds.
The 30-year bond yield rose above 4 percent and the 10-year yield exceeded 3 percent for the first time this month as stocks and commodities climbed, damping bonds' haven appeal. A report next week is forecast to show a U.S. retail sales decline slowed last month, adding to data that showed unemployment claims down and wholesale inventories up.
"We're seeing a move toward riskier assets," said Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist and economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. "There's a feeling that the pessimism was overdone."
