A "Housing Start" is defined as a home on which construction has started and ground has broken.
Furthermore, Single-Family Housing Starts were revised lower for both May and June of this year, by 6,000 units and 2,000 units, respectively.
The data may be worthless, however.
Like in most months, the government's official report states that the Housing Starts numbers have a margin of error exceeding their actual measurement. Mathematically, this renders the data statistically irrelevant.
In other words, July Housing Starts made have increased by as much as 13.8%, or they may have dropped up to 4.0%. We won't know for certain until several months from now, when the Census Bureau gathers more data.
Regardless, the trend in Housing Starts has been flat since last summer. July's reading is in-line with the 12-month average and, not surprisingly, New Home Sales have been mostly flat over the same time span.
Also included in the Housing Starts report is the Building Permits tally. As compared to June, permits were higher by a half-percent nationwide, with varying results by region.
When permits are issued, 86 percent of them start construction within 60 days. This means that new home sales and housing stock should follow the Building Permits trend, but on a 2-month delay.
Expect improvement into the fall season.
Builders are busy once again.
According to the Census Bureau, Single-Family Housing Starts rose to 453,000 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis in June -- a 9 percent spike from the month prior and the highest reading in 3 seasons.
A "Housing Start" is defined as a home breaking ground on new construction.
June's reading is largest one-month jump since June 2009. The reading surprised Wall Street despite that the Homebuilder Confidence survey may have foreshadowed the results.
Monday, the National Association of Homebuilders reported that builders are more confident about the future of the new home sales market, and forecast a large increase in sales over the next 6 months.
For buyers of new construction, the news is mixed. Rising confidence may mean that builders are less willing to negotiate on upgrades and/or price, but rising construction levels add inventory to an already fragile market.
Adding to the nation's home supply without a corresponding increase in buyer demand shifts negotiation leverage away from builders.
The Census Bureau also reported on Building Permits.
In June, permits for single-family homes rose by 1,000 units nationwide on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This, too, bodes well for housing because 89 percent of homes with permits start construction within 60 days.
Momentum should carry forward into fall.
If you're buying new construction in California , ask your real estate agent about local home supply, and how the market is trending. With mortgage rates low and the fall buying season approaching, you may find some of your best deals in the next few weeks.
As compared to April, last month's Single-Family Housing Starts rose 4 percent to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 419,000 units, a figure slightly better than the 6-month average and the highest tally since January.
A "housing start" is defined as a home on which new construction has started.
In addition, Building Permits saw a boost in May, too, climbing nearly 9 percent overall. Building Permits are a gauge of future construction activity with 89 percent of permits leading to new construction within 60 days.
For several reasons, the May data surprised Wall Street analysts.
First, more homes being built suggests a healthier housing market, yet, earlier this week, the June homebuilder confidence report posted its lowest reading since September 2010.
Second, new home sales are only slightly higher than their all-time lowest annualized readings. Sales volume remains low nationwide.
And, lastly, home prices have yet to recover in full. By adding additional inventory, builders may suppress price growth through the remaining portions of 2011.
For home buyers in California , though, the Housing Starts data may be a signal that the market is turning. The data can be used to your advantage.
Home prices are a function of supply and demand and -- based on the Housing Starts data plus the number of newly-issued Building Permits -- home supply is likely to rise. Demand, on the other hand, despite low mortgage rates, may not. At least not in the short run.
As a buyer, you can use this information to your advantage. If you're looking to buy new construction, ask your real estate agent about the current new homes supply. There are bargains to be found and May's Housing Starts data should support low prices for at least the next few weeks.
The Housing Starts report measures the number of homes on which new construction "broke ground". It's tracked by the U.S. Department of Commerce which releases new data monthly.
Single-family housing starts fell 5 percent as compared to March 2011, and 30 percent as compared to April one year ago.
The figures were worse than what Wall Street expected. For just the second time in 2 years, monthly single-family housing starts dropped below 400,000 units. In addition, single-family Building Permits fell in April as well, shedding 2 percent from March.
A building permit is a local government's approval to start home construction and when permits are down, new construction follows. This is because 93 percent of homes begin construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.
Fewer permits, as a consequence, means fewer new homes. Therefore, if you're looking at new construction , April's numbers may spark a sense of urgency.
Home prices are a function of home supply and demand and, based on the Housing Starts data, supplies appear headed for a fall. Meanwhile, on the other side of the equation, demand should be rising -- foot traffic is higher, mortgage rates are lower, and job growth is picking up.
This should lead new home prices higher in time. For now, though, home affordability remains high.
It's a good time to look at new home construction.
We can't put too much faith in the data, however, because for the second straight month, the government reports that the data's margin of error -- 15 percent -- exceeds its actual measurement.
As written in the footnotes, there's no "statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change [in Housing Starts] is different from zero."
In other words, single-family Housing Starts may have dropped up to 7 percent last month, or may have increased by as much as 22 percent. We won't know for certain until several months from now. As the Census Bureau gathers more data, it will revise its initial monthly findings.
Such adjustments are common. February's starts were revised higher by 4.5%, for example.
Also included in the Census Bureau's report is the March 2011 Building Permits tally. As compared to February, permits were higher by 6 percent nationwide. This is a noteworthy development because permits-issued is an excellent forward-predictor for housing.
When permits are issued, 86 percent of them will start construction within 60 days. This means that new home sales and housing stock should follow the Building Permits report trend, but on a 2-month delay.
Permits were strong in all 4 regions last month:
With Building Permits rising, we can infer that the housing market is improving.
Therefore, if you're currently looking for new construction, consider that the market may be less favorable for buyers 4-6 months from now than it is today. Especially because homebuilders are already projecting higher sales volume.
The better time to buy new construction -- relative -- may be now.
February's figures represents the worst 1-month drop in housing starts since May 2010 -- the month that followed the expiration of last year's federal home buyer tax credit -- and puts single-family housing starts at a 24-month low.
In addition, single-family Building Permits plunged last month, too, shedding 9 percent from January. A building permit is a local government's certification and approval to begin home construction.
Housing permits are an excellent forward-indicator for the housing market. This is because 93 percent of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Fewer permits, therefore, directly reduces the number of new homes coming to market in the coming months.
For home buyers looking at new construction or existing homes, this news should create a sense of urgency.
Home prices are based on supply and demand and overall home supply looks headed for a fall. Plus, with mortgage rates retreating and homebuilders projecting higher sales this summer, buyers may face rising home prices before long.
Sellers look poised to regain negotiation leverage.
For now, though, home affordability remains high with properties inexpensive and mortgage rates still low, historically. If you plan to buy a home in 2011, the February 2011 Housing Starts data may be reason to move up your time frame.
With home supplies dropping, prices are likely to rise.
A "Housing Start" is defined as a home on which construction has started.
Now, if you had only seen the Housing Starts story in the headlines today, you wouldn't have known that single-family starts fell at all. It's because of how the story is being reported.
Most commonly, newspaper headlines are reading something similar to "Housing Starts Jump 14.6%" with the lead paragraph making mention that "housing starts are at their highest levels in 4 years".
It's a true statement, but it's misleading, too.
This is because, despite the Census Bureau reporting Housing Starts by property type -- single-family, multi-family, and apartments -- the media often lumps them into a single data set.
It's a categorization that helps investors in homebuilder stocks, but it does little for everyday home buyers. The huge majority of buyers aren't buying multi-units or whole apartment buildings -- they're buying 1-unit homes.
Here's how January's Housing Starts broke down by type:
Clearly, the surge in Housing Starts can be attributed to the rapid rise in the 5-unit-or-more sector. Single-Family Starts were weak, by comparison.
Even with all of this noted, however, we can't even be certain that the January Housing Starts data is accurate anyway. A footnote in the government's report shows that, although single-family starts are said to have decreased 1 percent, the data's margin of error is ±8.6%.
This means that the true Single-Family Housing Starts reading may be anywhere from -9.6% to +7.6%. The data is throw-away. Housing Starts may have actually increased in January, but we won't know until revisions are offered later this year.
The Census Bureau defines a "housing start" as a home on which construction has started.
November's starts represents a 7 percent increase from the month prior. However, if you see the Housing Starts story online or in the papers, you'll notice that the press is calling the market gain at 4 percent.
So which result is right? The answer is both.
The government's monthly Housing Starts data is published as a composite report; lumping activity among 3 separate housing types into a single, group reading.
The 3 housing types are:
The group reading is a fair description of the market and it's easy-to-understand. As a result, it's what the press tends to report. However, for home buyers in California , it's the single-family category that's most relevant.
The reason why single-family homes accounted for 84% of November's Housing Starts is because that's the type of home that most buyers buy. Few purchase 2-4 unit properties, and even fewer buy entire apartment complexes.
That said, it's possible that November's Housing Starts data is wrong. Within the press release, the government placed an asterisk next to the data, indicating that the figure's margin of error exceeds its actual measurement.
Against a 7 percent gain, the reported margin of error is 13.5%. There is no statistical evidence, therefore, to prove the actual change was different from zero.
If Housing Starts did fall in November, it will help to reduce the housing inventory, which will, in turn, help keep home prices high. For home sellers, this could mean good news. Fewer homes for sale increase competition among buyers.
A "Housing Start" is a privately-owned home on which construction has started and, according to the Commerce Department's October 2010 data, Housing Starts data dropped by nearly 12 percent as compared to September.
The media jumped on the story, and its negative implications for the housing market overall.
A sampling of the headlines included:
Although factually correct, the headlines are misleading. Yes, Housing Starts fell sharply in October, but if we strip out the volatile "5 or more units" portion of the data -- a grouping that includes apartment buildings and condominiums -- Housing Starts only fell 1 percent.
That's a big difference. Especially because most new construction buyers around the country don't purchase entire condo buildings. They buy single-family residences.
As an illustration, 84% of October's Housing Starts were single-family homes. The remaining starts were multi-units.
This is why the headlines don't tell the whole story. The market that matters most to buyers -- the single-family market -- gets completely glossed over. The Housing Starts reading wasn't nearly as awful as the papers would have you believe. Furthermore, it's never mentioned that single-family Housing Permits climbed 1 percent last month, either.
According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Therefore, we can expect December's starts to be higher, too.
A "housing start" is a new home on which construction has started.
Housing Starts data is surveyed and broken-down by housing type:
The government logs each type separately, but also lumps them into a single, comprehensive figure within its reports. For this reason, headlines surrounding the story seem contradictory.
For example:
It's single-family homes that most Americans purchase, though, and that's why single-family starts are the numbers worth watching. As 75% of the market, it's more relevant than the joint numbers most commonly reported by the press.
In September, single-family starts did move to a 5-month high but buyers and sellers should keep the figures in perspective. Just because starts are rising doesn't mean the housing sector has turned around for good.
The first reason why is because, in September, starts were 75 percent less as compared to 5 years ago at the peak of housing. And if you feel that's an unfair comparison, even as compared to the last 12 months, September's data was tens of thousands below average.
Second, September's Margin of Error happened to exceed its actual measurement. This means that the 4 percent in starts may actually turn out to be a loss of 4 percent (or more!) once the data is collected in full.
If there's a reason to think the New Homes market is coming back, though, it's that home builder confidence is also at a 5-month high. Foot traffic is rising and builders are optimistic about the next six months. This could mean higher sales prices and less chance for negotiation.
Buyers in search of new homes may find it tougher to make a deal the closer we get to 2011.
After an upward revision to July's data, New Home Sales remained unchanged at 288,000 units in August. It marks the second-lowest number of units sold in a month since 1963, the year government started its record-keeping.
At the current pace of sales, the newly-built home inventory would be depleted in 8.6 months.
The August New Home Sales was weaker-than-expected, but both Wall Street investors and Main Street economists are shrugging it off. The numbers were foreshadowed by weakening housing figures from earlier this summer.
For example:
Together, these three data points suggest that the market for new homes will be soft through at least this month.
With New Home Sales fading and colder months ahead, it may be an opportune time for home buyers to look at new construction. Builders are eager to move inventory and the cost of materials remains low.
Buying "new" may never be cheaper -- especially with mortgage rates as low as they are. The 0.750 percent drop in rates since January has shaved $188 off of a $200,000 mortgage's monthly cost. That's $2,250 per year in savings.
As home supplies dwindle and mortgage rates rise, finding "great deals" in new construction will undoubtedly get tougher. Take advantage of today's market conditions, combined with builder pessimism. It may be the right combination at the right time to get that new home for cheap.
After an upward revision to July's data, New Home Sales remained unchanged at 288,000 units in August. It marks the second-lowest number of units sold in a month since 1963, the year government started its record-keeping.
At the current pace of sales, the newly-built home inventory would be depleted in 8.6 months.
The August New Home Sales was weaker-than-expected, but both Wall Street investors and Main Street economists are shrugging it off. The numbers were foreshadowed by weakening housing figures from earlier this summer.
For example:
Together, these three data points suggest that the market for new homes will be soft through at least this month.
With New Home Sales fading and colder months ahead, it may be an opportune time for home buyers to look at new construction. Builders are eager to move inventory and the cost of materials remains low.
Buying "new" may never be cheaper -- especially with mortgage rates as low as they are. The 0.750 percent drop in rates since January has shaved $188 off of a $200,000 mortgage's monthly cost. That's $2,250 per year in savings.
As home supplies dwindle and mortgage rates rise, finding "great deals" in new construction will undoubtedly get tougher. Take advantage of today's market conditions, combined with builder pessimism. It may be the right combination at the right time to get that new home for cheap.
A "Housing Start" is defined as a home on which construction has started and the August increase represents 18,000 single-family units nationwide.
If you only read the headlines, however, you would think the data was stronger. This is because the Housing Starts data is actually a composite of 3 types of homes -- single-family, multi-family, and apartments -- but the press tends to lump them all three together.
As a sampling, here are a some headlines on the story:
Now, it's not that the news is wrong, per se, it's just not necessarily relevant. Few home buyers are buying multi-family homes or entire apartment complexes. Most buy single-family and, for the first time since April, single-family starts are on the rise -- just not by as much as you'd believe from the papers.
Even still, we can't be entirely sure that the August Housing Starts data is accurate anyway.
A footnote in the Department of Commerce report shows that, although single-family starts are said to have increased 4 percent, the data's margin of error exceeds its actual measurement, meaning the data has "zero confidence".
In other words, starts may have dropped in August, but it's something we won't know for sure until revisions are made later this year.
According to the newspapers, Housing Starts improved last month:
However, these stories are speaking in terms of all housing starts -- not just the single-family ones. This is a major point of difference for home buyers in the South Bay because the most people don't buy the multi-unit homes and apartment buildings that's also a part of the Housing Starts data.
The overwhelming majority of buyers buy single-family homes and in July, as in the previous 3 months, the number of single-family housing starts fell.
In fact, single-family housing starts are down by nearly 25 percent since April and are now at their lowest levels since May 2009.
This is a much different message from the headlines above.
It's not surprising that single-family housing starts are down; builder confidence is down as well and the two metrics tend to trend in the same direction.
Furthermore, building permits for single-family homes fell in July, too.
As a home buyer, the drop in Housing Starts should help reduce housing inventory in the months ahead. This may lead home prices to rise because home values are based on supply and demand. For home sellers, falling starts should help reduce competition for buyers.
Each real estate market is unique and supply levels will vary from ZIP code to ZIP code. For up-to-the-minute inventory levels, make sure to talk with your real estate agent.
A "Housing Start" is a privately-owned home on which construction has started. It's an important gauge of housing health because it tracks new housing stock nationwide.
