Retail Sales Rise For 12th Straight Month In June

The American Consumer will not be deterred.

Despite worsening jobless figures and an increase in the Cost of Living, Retail Sales are climbing. In June, for the 12th straight month, retail receipts rose, excluding cars and auto parts.

Analysts expected no change from May. Instead, receipts topped $321 billion -- an all-time record.

For home buyers and would-be refinancers , this is a bit of unwelcome news. Mortgage rates are rising in the wake of the Retail Sales data release.

This is because Retail Sales account for roughly half of consumer spending, and nearly one-third of the economy overall. A rise in Retail Sales, therefore, suggests stronger growth ahead.

Here's how it happens.

As consumers spend more money, businesses sell more product. So, to accommodate burgeoning demand, business hire additional employees, and are forced to make additional capital expenditures as well. 

This rise in spending prompts other businesses to hire and spend; to meet their own respective demand surges. There's a chain reaction-like effect.

Then, with businesses carrying larger payrolls and bigger staffs, federal, state and local governments realize bigger tax bases and can fund new and existing projects. 

This, too, leads to hiring and the cycle repeats.

A weak economic outlook dragged down mortgage rates last week. This week's Retail Sales data reversed that flow. Mortgage rates are higher by 1/8 percent -- roughly $8 per $100,000 borrowed.

Retail Sales are up 8 percent from a year ago.

Retail Sales Report Should Spell Higher Mortgage Rates For Wednesday

Consumer spending is alive and well, it seems -- unwelcome news for today's home buyers. 

Wednesday, the Census Bureau will release its March Retail Sales figures and the report is expected to show higher sales receipts for the 9th straight month. A strong reading like that should spell higher mortgage rates nationwide.

The connection between Retail Sales and mortgage rates is fairly tight. Retail Sales are "consumer spending" and consumer spending accounts for the majority of the U.S. economy. The U.S. economy, of course, is a dominant force in setting the direction in which mortgage rates are headed.

For example, in 2010, it was a weak economy and murky outlook that helped drive mortgage rates to all-time lows. Since last year, however, the jobs market has started its recovery, monthly receipts have returned to all-time highs, and the Federal Reserve is revising growth estimates for 2011.

Not surprisingly, mortgage rates have reversed, too.

As compared to 6 months ago, conforming rates are higher by 0.750%. Home affordability across California is taking a hit. Plus, the stronger the economy appears to be, the more likely for mortgage rates to climb more.

It's why tomorrow's Retail Sales report is so important. 

If you're under contract for a home, or even evaluating the merits of a refinance, there's a lot of risk in "floating" your mortgage rate. The more prudent plan is to find a rate at which you're comfortable with the payment, and lock it in.

And you may want to take that lock sooner than you had planned -- if only to protect your monthly payments. Once tomorrow's Retail Sales report hits, it may be too late. Especially if receipts rise for the 10th straight month.

The Retail Sales report is due for release at 8:30 AM ET.

Mortgage Rates Spike On Strong Retail Sales Data. Could 4 Percent Rates Be Done?

If consumer spending is a key to economic recovery, the nation is on its way.

Monday, the Census Bureau released national Retail Sales figures for October and, for the second straight month, the data surged past expectation. Last month's retail figures jumped 1.2 percent -- the largest monthly jump since March -- as total sales receipts climbed to a 2-year high.

Consumer confidence is rising, too. Though still below the long-term trend, confidence in the future up-ticked in October.

The current confidence reading is now double the low-point from February 2009.

It's no surprise that both Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence are higher. They correlate in a common-sense-type manner. When consumers are more confident in the economy, they're more likely to spend their money. This, in turn, leads to more purchases and rising retail receipts.

Unfortunately, for home buyers and rate shoppers , it also leads to rising mortgage rates.

Because consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, spending growth leads to economic growth. But it's been a lack of growth that's kept mortgage rates this low.

When the growth starts, the low rates end. It's why mortgage rates have added as much as 1/2 percent over the past 10 days. Consider the recent "good news":

• Retail Sales made a 2-year high in October
• Existing and New Home Sales showed big improvement in September
• Jobs growth returned in October

The days of 4 percent, 30-year fixed rate mortgages may be nearing its end.  If you're still floating a mortgage rate or thinking of buying or refinancing, consider the impact of rising rates on your budget.

The time to act may be sooner than you had planned.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 20, 2010

Mortgage markets were highly volatile, yet relatively unchanged last week in back-and-forth trading on Wall Street. Global investors are grappling with the state of U.S. economy and unable to discern whether it's growing, or slowing.

As an real-world illustration, the government's August Retail Sales report showed strong growth nationwide. However, in looking at a subset of that same data that accounted for rising gas prices, and excluded automotive-related sales, the results were far more tame.

In other words, despite the winning headlines, there was no clear conclusion in August's Retail Sales.

As another example, consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level since August 2009, it was reported last week. Now, on most days, this statistic would lead mortgage rates lower, but the figures happened to be offset by improving employment report that suggests a looming jobs recovery.

Again, markets got confused and without clear direction, mortgage rates have been dancing.

Last week, conforming rates carved out a range close to 0.375 percent, making it difficult for California rate shoppers to zero-in on pricing. 30-year fixed rates worsened, 15-year fixed held steady, and ARMs improved overall.

This week, expect rates to be equally jumpy.  There's a lot of housing data due for release and the Federal Open Market Committee is meeting.

• Monday : Homebuilder Confidence Survey
• Tuesday : Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Meeting
• Wednesday : FHFA Home Price Index
• Thursday : Existing Home Sales
• Friday : New Home Sales

That's one housing-related release per day, and a Federal Reserve meeting to boot. Today's low rates could be vanished by Friday. 

Therefore, if you haven't already, it may be time to call your loan officer for a refinance. Rates could certainly fall further, but they're looking more likely to rise.

Home Affordability Gets A Boost From Weak Back-to-School Retail Receipts

The recent rise in mortgage rates was slowed this week after the government released its Retail Sales report for August.

Prior to Tuesday, mortgage rates had been spiking across California on the resurgent hope for U.S. economic recovery. The sentiment shift was rooted in reports including the Pending Home Sales Index and Initial Jobless Claims, both of which showed surprising strength last week.

August's Retail Sales, though, after removing motor vehicles, auto parts and gasoline sales, failed to maintain the momentum. Its figures were actually in-line with expectations -- it's just that expectations weren't all that high.

Wall Street now wonders whether the weak Back-to-School shopping season will trend forward into the holidays.

The doubt spells good news for mortgage rates and home affordability.

Because Retail Sales is tied to consumer spending and consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, a weak reading tends to drag down stock markets and pump up bonds, and when bonds are in demand, mortgage rates fall.

This is exactly what happened Tuesday. The soft Retail Sales data eased stock markets down, and generated new demand for mortgage bonds. This demand caused bond prices to rise, which, in turn, caused mortgage rates to fall.

Mortgage rates did not cut new lows this week, but they're very, very close.

With mortgage rates at historical lows, it's an excellent time to look at a refinance, or gauge what financing a new home would cost. Low rates like this can't last forever.

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : September 13, 2010

A shift in Wall Street sentiment caused mortgage markets to worsen last week. There wasn't much in the way of new data, but the numbers that did hit the street helped quell fears of a double-dip recession.

Conforming mortgage rates rose between Monday-Friday for the first time since June, and mortgage-backed securities have now lost ground on six of the last 7 trading days. 

During this period, conforming mortgage rates in California have risen by as much as 0.375 percent. 

Mortgage rates for FHA-insured home loans are higher, too.

Remember, concern for the future of the U.S. economy was a major catalyst for low rates this summer. The drop in rates, which began in April on weaker-than-expected data, accelerated through July and August on record-low home sales and a stalled jobs market.

Lately, though, these concerns are turning to hope.

• The July Pending Home Sales Index showed that housing has life
• Initial jobless claims came in much lower than expected
• Retail Sales is expected to post a gain for August

The growing optimism is putting the Refi Boom at risk. To be sure, it's been a rough two weeks to shop for a mortgage. 

This week may figure no better. In addition to the Retail Sales data, there's key inflation data due both Thursday and Friday, plus, two consumer confidence reports are set for release.  If the overall numbers point to an "improving economy", mortgage rates will likely rise again this week. 

Momentum is moving in that direction, certainly.

If your looking for the right time to lock a rate, now may be the time. Mortgage rates are off their best levels of all-time, but still quite low. There's lot of savings out there for homeowners who qualify.