Treasuries Tumble, Pushing 10-Year Yields Up Most Since April

Predicting mortgage interest rates is a challenging proposition (if accuracy matters to the forecaster!). The 10-year Treasury Bond is a major key.  As this article says, "we're on a knife's edge."  But are we, or is that only in the short term?  It's difficult to imagine a scenario that would not have rates increasing from their current levels in the coming years. - David

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Treasuries fell for the first week in a month, pushing 10-year yields up the most since April as concern eased the U.S. will slide back into recession and the government prepared to auction $69 billion of notes and bonds.

The 30-year bond yield rose above 4 percent and the 10-year yield exceeded 3 percent for the first time this month as stocks and commodities climbed, damping bonds' haven appeal. A report next week is forecast to show a U.S. retail sales decline slowed last month, adding to data that showed unemployment claims down and wholesale inventories up.

"We're seeing a move toward riskier assets," said Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist and economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. "There's a feeling that the pessimism was overdone."

Auctions, Data Weigh on Treasurys - WSJ.com

Simple formula:

Demand for 10-year Treasury securities down => Yield of 10-year Treasury securities hits 4% => Mortgage rates headed up further. - David

Auctions, Data Weigh on Treasurys - WSJ.com